Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond’s bounce Wednesday only neutralized its attraction above, without gaining any traction for the effort. Buyers were premature. Thursday’s plunge probed under Wednesday’s low. Who’s being premature, now? Well, buyers, if they don’t wait for a fresh low to be rejected.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s new low was reversed sharply overnight to probe all of the bounce limits. Back under 82.10 should at least retest Wednesday’s low, which is likely to hold as support.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s test of the 1.3333 target reversed down immediately Thursday to test the 1.3225 pullback limit, which held. Retesting the target should hold as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
(Still basis Aug)… Wednesday’s recovery back up to and through 1319.00-1320.00 was retraced again Thursday to spend much of the session ranging narrowly around 1312.50. While the range continues holding, its support is being chipped away more so than its resistance. At least a corrective dip to 1297.50 is becoming increasingly likely, in even the most bullish scenarios. Closing first above 1330.00 would start to signal the rally has resumed already.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging mostly around 19.65 Thursday has drawn lines in the sand — either recovering 20.00 would be very likely to extend through 20.60 to probe above 21.00, or else under 19.45 would target 18.88 and potentially new lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close in the 134-00 area was premature after Wednesday’s open had only recently fulfilled the drop’s 132-24 target — especially just ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Thursday’s slide under Wednesday’s low to 132-10 confirmed the bounce had only refueled sellers. At least the market is discounted ahead of Friday’s report, but it’s not being greeted from a position of strength. Fresh lows would target 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The strength of Wednesday’s rally above 105.00 was surprising enough, the pattern having yet to retest Tuesday’s 103.59 gap down under prior lows. By that standard, Thursday’s extension to 108.00 would seem outrageous. And it is, but still tracking a valid template — so long as Thursday’s peak were to reject any retest Friday by closing back under 106.00-106.50. Closing higher into the weekend would instead require testing 110.65 before the next downleg could form.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging did nothing to reject the recent break lower, or to accumulate a base. Thursday’s slide to fresh lows was already underway before EIA triggered a spike to fresh session lows.  There is no buy signal.

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