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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 9, 2013 - 3:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s rally into the weekend certainly validates the significance of meeting Thursday’s pullback target, but it doesn’t yet confirm a new rally leg is underway.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s inside day following Thursday’s gap down to new lows doesn’t terminate the decline’s momentum, but it does suggest that a fresh low would be recovered and potentially reversed back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s test of 1.3400 was retraced Friday to attack 1.3333, which needs to hold as support to maintain the rally’s potential for extending higher to 1.3580.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s choppy ranging Friday initially backed off from 1312.50, but ultimately recovered it. Regardless, there has yet to be trending above ti to confirm a new rally leg underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The recovery tested its 20.50 objective Friday, filling an outstanding gap, which should only temporarily delay extending to the next higher objective at 21.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early weakness was muted Friday, and anyway recovered to test Thursday’s high. There is no new signal, while awaiting the potential for breaking back under 133-10 to test fresh lows at 131-06.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight probe above the 104.25 buy signal was retraced overnight, but then probed again more strongly intraday to end Friday testing 106.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the 103.55 target’s test was complete. Pullbacks should meanwhile hold any test of 104.65-104.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 3.22 high held a test of the recent slide’s “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap above. Probing any higher early Monday would be likely to extend intraday, probably at a steep slope.

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Posted in Daily Spot