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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 21, 2013 - 3:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar stopped just short of signaling that a bottom had formed. The setup that predicted this attempt allows only a little more time before a rally must be underway — if not a new downleg instead.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s retest of prior lows was attracted back up Wednesday by the magnetic narrow congestion that had formed on Monday’s inside day. The recovery extended to test 81.45 but failed to close above it, which would have signaled a new rally leg underway.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s drop tried to reject Tuesday’s retest of recent highs, but stopped short of testing the 1.3333 reversal signal, let alone closing under it.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip back to Monday’s lows was still just more ranging around the rally’s 1375.00 target. The delay in extending higher doesn’t necessarily avoid a deeper dip, but the delay in reversing down does suggest the rally will try to resume. It might not get very far before failing, but it should try to resume.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow sideways ranging under 24.00 has persisted a little long, even for digesting such a substantial near-term move as the one that peaked nearly a week ago. The next trending attempt is likely to be false.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s premature rally did not extend higher Wednesday. Ranging sideways managed to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 130-14 close, but a new low close remains likely.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s drop extended down Wednesday, now likely to test 103.25 or 102.65 instead of triggering the 106.25 buy signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to Monday and Tuesday’s highs was a day late for providing the optimism that would have been better-timed Tuesday to confirm Monday’s breakout. That becomes problematic ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, which might force a normal correction to 3.36 into extending to 3.30.

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Posted in Daily Spot