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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 28, 2013 - 3:23 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Overnight follow-through to Tuesday’s beating war drum was less relevant intraday Wednesday. Could markets have been too confident that hostilities were coming, or that they would have an effect?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Recovering to 81.45 and ranging around it Wednesday now must follow-through without delay Thursday to become a new upleg. Otherwise, another downdraft will have become much likelier for the near-term.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dip ranged around Tuesday’s 1.3333 low, whose break would also signal a new downleg underway. That’s now two attempts to trend down without result. Almost any early rally Thursday would be credible for at last probing fresh highs, if not trending up.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing sharply higher Tuesday night was retraced entirely, ranging narrowly sideways intraday Wednesday around Tuesday’s close. That prevented a second consecutive higher close, putting the rally in jeopardy of reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The overnight rally through 25.00 was retraced to close in negative territory Wednesday, forming a “key reversal” setup that often triggers a multi-session trend reversal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down retraced all of Tuesday’s flight-to-safety back to 132-10. Closing under 131-30 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting new lows.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday night’s multi-dollar rally probed above 112.00, but only Wednesday’s open touched the rally’s 110.65 target. The balance of the session consolidated around 110.00. There is no new signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming to the recent range’s upper-end ahead of Thursday’s EIA report does position the market for a favorable reaction to extend sharply higher. It also requires a favorable reaction in order to avoid a significant decline.

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Posted in Daily Spot