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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Crude Oil plunged Tuesday, retracing all of their recent “worry” premiums. And no more. Very relevant support is being tested in each instance, with no room and little time to avoid extending the drops.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up did not extend higher and the balance of the session ranged narrowly back down to Monday’s close, making it difficult to consider the recent dip as having ended.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday without extending higher was not bullish, but sellers did not retake control as the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. Early trending Wednesday would be likely to extend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While waiting for Friday morning’s surge to extend, it was retraced entirely. Monday’s narrow ranging above 1384.50 gave way overnight to a plunge back down to 1357.60. Once again, closing under 1377.00 requires opening above 1381.00 to reinstate upward momentum. So long as 1377.00-1381.00 isn’t required, the drop can extend down to “lower prior highs” at 1341.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 23.10 origin of Friday’s surge down to 22.85. The pattern has no room and little time to delay recovering back up to 23.55 if a deeper downleg targeting 22.00 can be avoided.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down to 128-20 essentially retraced all of Friday’s spike up on the Employment Situation report. Its natural support produced a bounce up to 129-14, which must hold as resistance to maintain potential for fresh lows down to 127-04.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s shallow dip from 110.65 seemed skeptical toward avoiding Syrian confrontation. Tuesday’s plunge to 106.40 seems overly-assured. Closing back above 107.50 would trigger a retest of recent highs, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s bounce had rejected Friday’s extended drop. The bounce also allowed room for Tuesday’s dip without it renewing the drop. Closing back above 3.61 is still needed to launch a new upleg.

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