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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 17, 2013 - 2:51 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Was it a sense of calm, or anxiousness, that permeated the air Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement? Either way, volatility was limited to the Energies.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s narrow sideways range didn’t reject Monday’s gap. Nor did it confirm it. There is no active signal going into Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging sideways Tuesday still pierced Monday’s low to actually test the 1.3333 level, which is still trying to resist a much larger rally from beginning.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Failing another test of 1321.00 resistance this time pushed back down to the recent ~1305.00 low, all but assuring at least a fresh low. A fresh low’s rejection would make triggering the buy signal more reliable. Triggering the buy signal without first probing a fresh low would be suspicious.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce was rejected by Tuesday’s gap down that extended back to recent lows, leaving no active signal ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite retracing all of Monday morning’s gap up back into negative territory, Tuesday’s session only ranged sideways in positive territory between 129-28/130-12. There is no trending underway ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement, with equal potential for resuming the decline to 127-04 or for launching a rally above 131-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 106.75 pullback limit broke lower Tuesday to test 105.00. Any near-term recovery potential requires rejecting the extra dip by closing sharply higher Wednesday, if not already gapping up at Wednesday’s open.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s open gapped up for a change, instead of gapping down like the prior three consecutive sessions. The pattern was similar otherwise, reversing the gap back into the prior session’s range. But that meant a post-open dip back into negative territory. At least the open’s gap up was above all prior highs, creating an attraction that will try to attract price back up to it, presumably to resume and extend the rally.

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Posted in Daily Spot