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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 19, 2013 - 2:41 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight What FOMC giveth, the hangover taketh away… as was the case with Crude Oil. Its 2-day, $4 rally revisited the last bounce’s target, all but requiring a new rally leg. But buyers were tired and in need of a rest.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows overnight down to 80.15 were not tested intraday, which bounced to 80.55. Retesting the overnight low before extending any higher would be likely to form a bottom. Otherwise, extending any higher would target 81.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fresh highs overnight essentially tested the next higher resistance at 1.3580. A pullback has room down to 1.3485 before starting to signal a more substantial drop underway targeting 1.3333.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1363.00 target had been met soon after the 1341.00 target, further pressuring the rally’s momentum. The next higher resistance at 1377.00-1381.00 is likely to hold if tested prior to at least a modest corrective pullback, preferably a pullback all the way back down to 1341.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s recovery extended higher after the FOMC news, attacking the 23.55 resistance. Its test is likely so long as 23.00 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above 132-00 created room for a pullback down to 131-10 while keeping alive potential that a bottom has been forming. The pullback’s test must resolve up into the weekend, or else breaking back under 131-02 would signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The recovery extended higher Wednesday’s night to probe above 108.75 resistance. Although its test reacted down to test 106.75 intraday Thursday, retesting 108.75 was probably more for chipping away at resistance than for refueling sellers.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh high up to 3.82 on the EIA report were reversed down sharply intraday to 3.68. Wednesday’s low held, but not by enough for confidence in resuming the rally. Any lower low would reverse momentum down.

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Posted in Daily Spot