Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Silver had begun rallying sharply before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Their rallies extended sharply into the following morning. But no net improvement Thursday made them vulnerable. And Friday reclaimed almost all of Wednesday’s gains.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging in slightly positive territory ended the week. No new signal is offered, but closing above Monday’s high after probing under Thursday’s low would trigger a rally.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s narrow ranging offered no new signals, except the “ineffectual optimism” that prevented a deeper, healthier dip that could have refueled buyers to help extend the rally.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday failed to extend the FOMC rally, opening the door to a correction back down to 1341.00. It was tested Friday down to 1327.20, and not recovered by the close. Recovering it immediately Monday is probably the only way to resume the rally without first testing 1321.00, whose break would target new lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down held 22.75 as resistance and extended another dollar lower, testing “lower prior highs” that had preceded the FOMC news. But for probing any lower intraday, Monday should resume the rally to avoid retesting its lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday morning’s test of 131-02 was resolved up to attack 132-00. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would launch a new rally leg. But closing back under 131-02 would still signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from retesting 108.75 fell back under 105.00 Friday, which is too deep for a rally leg that should have been ready to extend higher This doesn’t necessarily turn the pattern bearish, but a close back above 106.75 is the minimum requirement to become bullish.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh low down to 3.65 did not extend down, but was not recovered back above 3.71. The pattern cannot tolerate much delay past Monday’s open to launch a new rally leg.

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