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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 26, 2013 - 2:39 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Can Crude Oil avoid breaking lower? Can Gold avoid breaking lower? The Dollar seems to be ready to break one way or the other, so the answers should be obvious by Friday afternoon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s near “ineffectual optimism” was retested Thursday, despite the interim session Wednesday having gapped down. Extending higher Friday would essentially end the potential for a fresh low prior to a larger upleg getting underway, especially if extending up were aggressive.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s near “ineffectual pessimism” was retested Thursday, despite the interim session Wednesday having gapped up. Extending lower Friday would essentially end the potential for a fresh high prior to a deeper downleg getting underway, especially if extending down were aggressive.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s attack on 1341.00 was all but rejected Thursday by trending down to test 1321.00 support. The support test held, but breaking under it Friday and confirmed under 1313.00 would signal a new downleg underway. Closing above 1341.00 would still put into play a retest of prior highs.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow ranging again held 21.88-21.95 resistance to prevent a new upleg from getting underway, keeping alive the risk of resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s shallow gap down and narrow sideways ranging held above the 132-22 pullback limit, keeping alive the pattern’s requirement for at least one more higher close.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another test of 102.30 support overnight produced an intraday bounce, which failed as the afternoon attacked support again. That may be one swing too many while waiting for a rally to avoid breaking lower to 99.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The requirement for at least one more lower close was fulfilled easily Thursday after the morning’s EIA report triggered a steep slide to fresh lows at 3.40. There is no new parameter.

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Posted in Daily Spot