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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 3, 2013 - 2:57 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold really has only one opportunity to reverse the trend up before the weekend, which essentially means this may be its last opportunity before mid-week. Trending down into the weekend would be more credible for resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Another, deeper test of the probes under 80.05-80.10 support held through the close, and a second consecutive lower close has confirmed at least one more new low close is due.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Retesting the rally’s 1.3580 objective, again, produced a second consecutive higher close that confirmed the breakout, now requiring at least one more new high close, not necessarily consecutive.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s rally back to 1321.00 resistance required closing back under 1306.00 to signal momentum had reversed down. It was retested Thursday morning after an overnight dip tested 1306.00 as support, and its resistance held.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Yet another test of 21.88-21.95 resistance pushed back before extending higher to at least attack 23.00. The afternoon’s recovery stopped just short of 21.88, potentially well-placed pessimism that would make early strength credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks encouraged a flight-to-quality that helped the long-bond to retest Wednesday’s 133-29 high Thursday morning, still needing at least one more fresh high close before sellers could begin gaining traction.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s bounce through the 102.95 bounce limit up to 104.00 did not extend higher Thursday, and drifted back to 102.95. Closing under 102.30 would reinstate fresh lows targeting 99.10.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reaction down extended down further Thursday. No relevant support has been broken, so there is no requirement for any lower low before a credible rally can begin.

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Posted in Daily Spot