Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil and Natural Gas have traded inversely at key turning points this year. That could be very good for Natty Gas on Thursday. And very bad for Crude.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging this week had undermined last Friday’s recovery effort, suggesting a little more time would be spent bottoming before a rally could begin. That didn’t prevent gapping up to range around 80.50-80.60 Wednesday. But the gap’s origin still suggests a bottom hasn’t yet completed, making another dip to 80.05-80.10 likely.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday and Tuesday’s narrow ranging had kept alive potential for attacking or retesting recent highs before completing a top and extending down. So, extending down sharply Wednesday anyway should be recovered abruptly. Back above 1.3565 would signal the pullback had ended.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The rejection of 1321.00 resistance was completed Wednesday by gapping down and extending sharply lower to test 1294.60. Still, 1306.00 support was not broken cleanly. The resolution down remains likely so long as 1311.00 holds as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 21.88-21.95 had held 22.50 for a second consecutive session, making a reaction down Wednesday easier. But 21.88-21.95 held, and back above 22.15-22.25 should extend to fresh highs attacking 23.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s market drop didn’t have any impact on the long-bond, which ranged narrowly while awaiting the afternoon’s auction. The lowest level in a week was tested, but only barely lower, and still several ticks from even touching the 132-22 pullback limit.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Two days of testing 104.00 resistance without breaking higher wasn’t necessarily bearish, but it did resolve down sharply Wednesday by probing under 102.95 support to 101.18. Now 99.10 is in-play so long as 102.30 holds as resistance, and so long as Thursday confirms with a second consecutive lower close.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday wasn’t required to produce the third higher close now required by the confirmed breakout. The session’s narrow ranging was probably anxiousness ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. At least, that had better be its excuse, which would be proved by rallying sharply into the afternoon.

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