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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 14, 2013 - 2:49 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond is starting to lose patience with the peace talks.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Sunday night’s gap down extended into Monday’s open, but the session mostly only ranged around Friday’s lows. A little bit lower would fulfill the retest of 80.05-80.10.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap up didn’t get very far for very long before beginning to range around Friday’s high through the balance of the day. But there is no need to delay a retest of recent highs, which the pattern still depends upon to form a more durable top.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally through Friday’s closing test of 1269.00 eventually tested 1291.50 before reversing back down under 1277.50. Now extending back under 1269.00 without much delay would allow the decline to resume without much more of a detour higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s post-open ranging had formed a Pennant likely to resolve down. That certainly won’t be immediate, with Monday’s gap up probing above 21.50. But a dip back down to 21.25 should be only a formality to breaking under 21.25 and extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The cash market was closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, and futures initially ranged narrowly around the pattern’s 132-22 pullback limit, but then trended down to a fresh low at 131-28. Regardless of the headlines, the pattern still requires one more new high close before a pullback would be entirely credible for extending into a durable downleg.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows were once again retraced Monday, testing the 102.35 bounce limit by 25-30 cents. The weekend wasn’t exited in decline, so any further delay in extending down to fresh lows would start to be viewed as bullish.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday immediately challenged 3.83, whose recovery would put the rally in a whole new class with substantially higher objectives. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and spent the afternoon testing 3.83 as resistance.

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Posted in Daily Spot