Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold retested support, confirming that Wednesday’s low wasn’t yet a bottom. But while reacting up instead of down still reflects too much optimism for this to be a durable bottom, it also suggests that a bigger bounce is needed before extending to new lows.
Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Thursday weren’t required to close lower, since the pattern failed to confirm its earlier break. The sequence now makes Friday unlikely to close lower and confirm Thursday’s break.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday was greeted by probing fresh highs, which the pattern did not require. But the sequence now makes a higher close unlikely Friday, since the prior breakout attempt also did not confirm.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip to 1329.50 support was likely to revisit 1341.00 resistance, which Thursday’s open did. Its test extended sharply higher intraday, forming a breakout. Failing to close higher Friday would avoid confirming the breakout, and be likely to reverse back down to and through 1329.50. Otherwise, extending higher would target 1360.00-1362.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs testing 22.90 Thursday still target 23.35, now so long as 22.50 holds as support. This stage of the pattern is likely either to fulfill the fresh high, or else reverse down aggressively.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s modest weakness did not reverse the rally’s momentum. But shallow ranging near the high that reflects optimism is not helpful at this stage of the rally, which needs either to extend higher without interruption or else refuel with deeper intraday dips.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s premature bounce was reversed to probe slightly lower low at Thursday’s open. That avoided extending down, too, and recovered into positive territory, suggesting that a bigger corrective bounce may be needed before resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentary weakness touched 3.55 Thursday morning before reversing up sharply intraday. Closing positive does not fulfill the pattern’s outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close before a credible rally can begin.
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