Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A second consecutive lower close Wednesday in the Euro would confirm the top has formed and momentum has reversed down.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Three of the sessions prior to Tuesday had gapped up, but none extended higher. The intervening session had gapped down, but also did not extend down. Tuesday’s gap up finally did extend higher into the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom has formed and momentum has reversed up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s dip proved to be preliminary, and not in need of retesting the high before extending down. At least, the attraction to retesting highs was satisfied when Tuesday’s gap down retraced to fill the open’s gap. Then a slingshot down into the afternoon closed at fresh session lows, and under the 1.3770 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm the top has formed and momentum has reversed down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from Monday’s test of the 1360.00-1362.00 target produced a gap down Tuesday. The close was lower still, after filling the gap intraday back to Monday’s close. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm momentum is reversing down, but a retest of 1362.00 is likelier and then likely to reverse down more substantially.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down was recovered immediately, but not extended higher. This suggests the gap back to 22.80 still wants to be filled, probably probed up to 23.05, but that a bigger top will have formed when that is complete.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip under the three prior sessions’ lows came too late to gain traction, as the three prior sessions had earned a retest of the 135-25 high. But the shallow consolidation is no more likely to launch a durable rally leg.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s gap down never extended down, nor did it recover intraday. The “ineffectual pessimism” wasn’t pessimistic enough for its ineffectiveness to be very bullish from a contrarian perspective. But a fresh high would still be vulnerable to launching a new downleg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last week’s premature 15-cent reaction up from 3.55 support fulfilled the setup’s bearish expectations with Monday’s gap down. The likelihood of also testing 3.50 was fulfilled Tuesday on the way to 3.48. This pattern isn’t likely to pivot up without first forming some bottoming. But closing back above 3.55 would be credible for extending into a recovery anyway.

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