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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 30, 2013 - 2:51 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro managed to confirm Tuesday’s signal. But only in a late reaction to FOMC. It gets a benefit of the doubt… if not rejected immediately Thursday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Tuesday’s break. It came late, so rejecting it early Thursday would be a problem to the recovery.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s bounce tested the 1.3770 sell signal, and then reacted down late on FOCM. The second consecutive lower close confirmed Tuesday’s break.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s retest of the lower-end of the rally’s 1360.00-1362.00 target area was not optimal for ending the rally, but it may have been enough. The post-close reaction to FOMC fell under 1340.00. The trend has reversed down so long as 1346.00-1348.00 isn’t recovered at Thursday’s open.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The fresh high testing 23.05 was fulfilled by Wednesday’s gap up. The FOMC reaction drove price back down to 22.40. The trend will try to reverse back down so long as 22.70 isn’t recovered through Thursday’s close..

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s dip did serve to slingshot a recovery back into the range. The retest of 135-25 highs was attacked to within 4 ticks, when FOMC knocked it back down under Tuesday’s low to 134-19. One more lower close would signal the trend has reversed down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s shallow dip was followed by one more substantial on Wednesday. It tested natural support at 97.05, a 61.8% retracement back to the lows. There is still support at 96.70 and 96.35 that could launch a rally leg. But any rally prior to their test would be premature and not credible.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Dec from Nov at a 12-cent premium] Wednesday’s narrow range did not even attempt to reject Tuesday’s fresh low testing 3.61 (basis Dec, 3.50 basis Nov), further suggesting that prior lows must be probed before a bottom can form.

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Posted in Daily Spot