Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Can Gold fulfill its minimum objective of at least one more lower close, without detouring up significantly? Can Crude Oil resume its decline long enough for one more new low close? Have currencies reached turning points? These questions should have likely answers by week’s end.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s surge that only retested Friday’s high, despite Monday’s breather, warned of weakness. Wednesday’s dip confirmed it, but didn’t fall far enough to signal momentum reversing down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s drop to fresh lows that only retested Friday’s low, despite Monday’s breather, warned of strength. Wednesday’s rally confirmed it, but didn’t rise far enough to signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1306.00 Tuesday didn’t threaten the decline’s traction, and Wednesday’s bounce held 1321.50 resistance. There is no excuse for not yet resuming the decline before Thursday afternoon, unless the decline is being intervened by a bigger detour.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce retraced a healthy 61.8% of the recent slide, suggesting the decline is ready to resume. The bounce has some room higher up to 22.05, but there is no reason for much further delay to resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dull narrow ranging Wednesday after touching the long-standing 132-24 target suggests any further recovery would be suspicious. Firming ahead of Friday’s NFP report would then likely be bearish.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Bouncing well above the 94.60 bounce limit Wednesday suggests the decline is ending. Wednesday’s high should not be exceeded above 95.30 intraday if a fresh low can be tested down to the 92.85 target that was attacked to within 25 cents Tuesday.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s brief spike up doesn’t change the two-day bounce’s origin, which should still be retested somehow — at least down to 3.40 if not also the 3.37 overnight lows — before a bottom can form and launch a durable rally leg.

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