Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Surprise, surprise, surprise… The ECB rate cut whacked currencies hard. And that whacked other markets. Now comes the confirming session Friday — or, not — that either reinforces the moves or signals their end(s).
Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s pullback wasn’t deep enough to reverse momentum down, or even to signal the rally had ended. Thursday’s surprise ECB rate cut explained why, launching a surge to sharply higher highs. Retracing more than 61.8% of the surge still held prior highs as support, being likely to retest Thursday’s highs.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s bounce wasn’t high enough to reverse momentum up, or even to signal the decline had ended. Thursday’s surprise ECB rate cut explained why, launching a plunge to sharply higher lows. Retracing 61.8% of the plunge still held under prior lows, being likely to retest Thursday’s lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reaction to the ECB’s surprise rate cut triggered a spike down to fresh lows at 1296.00. That created a bounce limit up to 1311.00, which was tested. Back under 1306.00 would signal the decline had resumed. It held, but 1311.00 wasn’t recovered, so a bigger detour bounce is not yet signaled.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 22.05 bounce limit was being attacked when the ECB rate hike blind-sided the market. The reaction’s spike down essentially fulfilled the initial 21.35 objective before bouncing, leaving outstanding an attraction to 20.70.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging after touching the decline’s 132-24 target did resolve up, at least initially. Thursday’s bounce to 134-24 retraced almost all of the drop from Monday’s close back up to Tuesday’s opening print. That’s not yet enough for a buy signal — a second consecutive higher close is still needed — especially ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s open did immediately reject Wednesday’s bounce, at least the portion of that had exceeded the 94.60 bounce limit. A retest of the lows that also visits the 92.85 target remains likely, so long as 95.30 isn’t recovered.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The suspicious rally didn’t prevent very positive anticipation ahead of Thursday’s IEA report. And the very positive action didn’t prevent retracing it all back to almost unchanged. There was even some optimism left intact, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, and maintains potential for retesting the lows.
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