Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold’s bounce Thursday comes after Tuesday and Wednesday’s lows thoroughly tested the decline’s target. But the recovery is beginning a little too abruptly to avoid doing a little more work at the lows.
Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s narrow ranging suggests the recent dipping has not gained traction. There is no requirement to react up immediately, but not reacting up soon would become vulnerable to suddenly extending down sharply. There is specific trigger to the pattern at this stage, so it is not a very attractive trading candidate.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Flat-to-higher ranging persisted through Thursday’s open, still failing to gain any traction, while ranging around last Thursday’s 1.3450 high. A reaction down from here would be appropriate, but there is no actual signal in this pattern to require it. But either a steep reaction down or a steep surge is likely at this stage.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding Wednesday’s intraday test of the 1268.50 and 1274.50 targets produced a gap up Thursday that extended to attack 1294.00, leaving the gap back to Wednesday’s 1268.50 close that will need to be filled. Filling it and then closing back above 1278.50 would seal a bottom. The bounce otherwise might extend temporarily up to 1306.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up tested 20.70, whose recovery would signal a bigger corrective bounce underway. It essentially held, despite being probed up to 20.88, suggesting that the gap back to Wednesday’s 20.45 close must be filled before a more durable bounce can begin.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce from 131-08 extended higher Thursday amid Yellen’s confirmation hearing, testing 133-00 to within 1 tick. That should be the bounce’s peak before correcting to under 131-26 to 131-14 where a more durable bottom can form.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Any early strength above 94.60 would have been credible for launching a sizable rally, but Thursday morning only dropped back toward the 92.85 low. Its reaction back up toward 94.60 maintains the buy signal back above 94.60 for Friday morning.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction down from Tuesday’s bounce limit extended even deeper Thursday to 3.49, but the EIA report reaction triggered a surge into positive territory testing 3.60. That would suffice as a corrective bounce, so long as the pullback were to resume without delay Friday. Otherwise, extending above 3.63 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.
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