Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s 1-2 punch from ECB comments and FOMC Minutes triggered big tests of big levels. Bigger trending — perhaps bigger reversals — could be underway by week’s end.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday and Tuesday’s probes under last week’s lows finally began reversing back up Wednesday morning in reaction to Draghi’s comments. The 81.05 signal was tested, and closing any higher Thursday would confirm momentum has reversed up.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dive ended the day testing 1.3470 as support. Closing lower Thursday would confirm the bounce had ended, and that momentum was reversing down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows targeting 1241.00-1245.50 were left outstanding by October’s bounce. Wednesday’s intraday plunge to 1255.00 was exceeded post-close to test 1240.00 in reaction to FOMC Minutes that hinted of tapering. There isn’t much downside remaining for this leg, if any, without becoming something much more substantial.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s intraday test of 20.00 was exceeded on the FOMC news down to 19.80. Closing back above 20.35 would start to signal the drop’s sponsorship had been expended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip under 132-16 eventually extended down to the FOMC news and probed prior lows. Closing back above 131-14 would signal the drop’s momentum was lapsing, to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. There is otherwise not currently any lower objective.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The “momentary dip on Wednesday [that] wouldn’t be inappropriate to finish forming a bottom” was produced by a blip-down to 93.00. Its recovery never extended higher to actually reverse momentum up, but any initial strength Thursday would be credible for launching a new upleg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 3.63 suggests the interim dip was only a correction. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm that a new rally leg was underway, initially targeting 3.81. Closing back under 3.56 Thursday would trap Wednesday’s buyers and help to fuel a retest of the lows.

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