Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold’s Sunday night plunge opened the week with extreme sentiment. As is often the case, that proved to be a sentiment extreme. The balance of the session rallied sharply. Gaining $20 from the low might seem the opposite of last week’s bearish behavior, but it’s the same elasticity — so it’s probably the same sponsorship, and not yet necessarily a bottom.
Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s open gapped up to attack the recent bounce’s peak. Holding 81.05 did not yet reject Friday’s drop, or prevent sellers from regaining traction.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s retest of recent highs didn’t follow-through Monday, as the open gapped down. Sellers didn’t regain control, as the session only ranged around Friday’s 1.3515 low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending down sharply overnight to test 1225.70 Monday’s opening gap down reversed back up immediately to probe back into the decline’s 1240.00-1245.00 target area. Post-close action even rallied through its upper-end. The gap back to Monday’s 1228.10 opening will need to be filled eventually. But not necessarily prior to extending the bounce to test 1260.00 or 1270.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Sunday night weren’t retested intraday Monday, as the open immediately recovered above prior lows and extended higher through the morning. The overnight lows will need to be retested eventually.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s initial weakness was recovered back into positive territory, extending last week’s rally to resistance above 132-06, attacking 132-14 which remains in-play so long as 131-28 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Now we know why last week’s bounce couldn’t get through its 95.00 trigger. The Iran deal removed the threat of US attack for 6-12 months, lopping off almost $1.50 at Sunday night’s open. The equivalent to the Dec contract’s decline target was attacked overnight at 93.20, and retested more deeply Monday morning, ultimately recovering to probe back above 94.00. The pattern’s bottoming potential remains intact, but still needs to close at least above 94.60 to begin signaling momentum extending up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite my own lack of confidence in the recovery, it did probe its minimum 3.81 objective Sunday night up to 3.85. The balance of the session tested and held 3.81 as resistance. Closing back under 3.77 would start to signal momentum reversing back down.
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