Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s Employment Situation report greets several markets challenging significant levels. Whether confirming or invalidating fresh breakouts, or finally triggering breakouts from recent ranges, there is potential for a lot of action into and out of the weekend.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s ECB and BOE announcements triggered a surge to new lows, after two prior recovery attempts had failed. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the breakout. Not confirming wouldn’t necessarily equate to being a bottom, but it would be a start.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A surge to fresh highs after Thursday’s ECB and BOE announcements created a breakout that still requires confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Friday. That’s not unlikely, but it’s not required. And the recent extended ranging was not accumulative, so it created no higher targets to attract price higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s steep $40 recovery through 1230.50 resistance to test 1251.00 was rejected by Thursday’s gap down back to 1230.50. Gapping down to 1230.50 made the 1245.50 pullback limit less relevant for targeting fresh lows, since so much selling pressure was already expended at the open. The break did extend down to 1216.50, but recovered back above 1230.50. Now closing back above 1245.50 would reinstate the rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to 19.35 retraced all of Wednesday’s last surge, and didn’t extend down. Instead, the surge was retraced by 61.8% up to 19.70. Almost any higher Friday would resume Wednesday’s rally. Otherwise, more consolidation will be required first.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Thursday did not gain traction as the 128-29 prior low held its test. There is no active signal, leaving the pattern vulnerable to wide intraday gyrations in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs were probed up to 98.00 Thursday. Holding 96.50 would still keep alive the 98.35 target.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Hesitation at 4.00 never signaled a reversal down, and a favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA triggered a surge to fresh highs at 4.14. The 4.25 target remains intact so long as 4.08 holds as support. But Thursday’s break also requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm its momentum remains intact.

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