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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 6, 2013 - 2:13 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Whether Friday’s Employment Situation report helped currencies to confirm recent breakouts, but generally only triggered volatility elsewhere. Even then, currencies are required to produce at least one more new trending close.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s second consecutive lower close confirms Thursday’s breakout, now requiring there to be at least one more lower close. It need not be consecutive, so an immediate bounce would likely fail.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Thursday’s breakout, now requiring there to be at least one more higher close. It need not be consecutive, so an immediate dip would likely recover.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s volatility rivaled Wednesday’s range. A fresh low was probed down to 1210.00, reacting back up to 1245.00 on the Employment Situation report. Regardless of the volatility, closing above 1230.50 was the minimum requirement to maintain the bottoming effort — it was still being tested at the close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report spiked down momentarily before returning to essentially unchanged, ranging narrowly into the weekend. Almost any initial strength would be credible for trending sharply higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report spiked to a fresh low at 128-01 and then spiked back up to 129-16 resistance, all within the context of ranging around the 128-29 prior low. There is still no sign of reversing momentum up.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Flat-to-higher ranging remained above 96.50 to keep intact the 98.35 target. Closing above 98.35 would next target 101.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher Friday attacked the 4.25 target to within a nickel before reacting down. The reaction down needed only to close positive to confirm Thursday’s breakout.

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Posted in Daily Spot