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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold (and Silver) soared between Monday’s close and Tuesday’s open. Intraday action tried probing higher, but managed only to maintain the overnight rally. The action seems to confirm expectations that a bottom was forming, but that’s not yet assured — despite the day’s huge gains — without a second consecutive higher close Wednesday.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Tuesday confirmed Monday’s breakout, now requiring there to be another lower close in this pattern. An immediate bounce would be likely to resolve down.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s fresh high went beyond the setup’s minimum requirement that was fulfilled Monday, probing above the 1.3775 objective, threatening the potential objective at 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bottoming pattern already seemed to be breaking higher after Monday’s close was firming up toward 1240.00. Overnight action greeted Tuesday’s open by gapping up to 1260.00, which was still being tested at the close despite being probed intraday. Closing any higher would target 1270.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Consolidating narrowly under the gap back to 19.80 made the pattern likely to almost literally explode higher, which Tuesday’s open did after rallying overnight. The next higher objective in-play is 20.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction up from Friday’s probe of fresh lows had recovered back up to 129-16 resistance, with room for extending up to 130-02. Tuesday’s gap up tested it while also touching 130-11. No accumulative pattern preceded the bounce, so a reaction down is likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 98.35 target was met Tuesday, probed up to 98.75, whose recovery would be likely to extend sharply higher. More likely is a reaction down to the 94.00 area that consolidates this first rally leg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After testing and holding the rally’s 4.25 target Monday, Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs was required to extend higher in order to avoid a top. But probing a fresh high intraday was reversed down, which is also in-line with Monday’s fresh high having been launched from a position of weakness. A pullback has room down to 4.13.

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