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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 13, 2013 - 2:53 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s dip Friday was interesting in its timing, as was Gold’s bounce. Both reacted to recent strong trending in the opposite direction, countering it into the weekend. If Friday’s reactions aren’t confirmed coming out of the weekend, then the original trends would be very vulnerable to resuming.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday happened to confirm Thursday’s surge. Immediate and pronounced follow-through on Monday would help to confirm, as well. Otherwise, a retest of the low would be needed before the next credible rally effort.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive close back under 1.3775 confirms the rally has peaked. But reversing down so soon may limit the pullback only to 1.3580-1.3605. Closing back above 1.3775 would invalidate the reversal, and give fresh highs another chance to exceed 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming to close back above 1232.00 Friday not only prevented confirming Thursday’s plunge, but also suggested that sellers were done. Still, closing back above 1240.00 and 1240.50 is needed to signal that buyers have regained control for another upleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging avoided confirming Thursday’s plunge had gained any traction. But it did not yet threaten to reverse momentum up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s dip absorbed the 30-year auction, which Friday’s relief rally corrected. Regardless, the 129-16 sell signal is still being tested, and now a fresh low under 128-28 would target a retest of the “V” bottom low down to 127-28.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from testing the recovery’s 98.35 target seems to have begun, with Friday’s break targeting the 94.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s attempt to extend the rally only probed Thursday’s highs briefly. RSIs continued deteriorating. Nonetheless, a pullback would have room down to 4.25 before being considered anything more than just a pullback on the way up to 4.48-4.51.

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Posted in Daily Spot