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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 16, 2013 - 2:27 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge seems to confirm the ongoing pattern’s elasticity, but it doesn’t preclude the requirement for a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
[Rolling coverage to Mar from Dec] Monday’s gap down suggests the 79.90 pullback objective (basis Mar, 79.75 basis Dec) will be tested before a durable rally can begin. Closing above 80.50 would signal the rally had begun anyway.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday and Friday’s confirmed reversal signal nonetheless suggested a corrective bounce would precede the eventual downleg. Monday’s gap up held 1.3775, and if not rejected immediately, then a fresh high should be tested up to 1.3833.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s surge through 1240.00 and 1245.50 attacked 1252.00 before settling back at 1245.50. Closing cleanly above 1245.50 would have been preferable, but fresh highs Tuesday would help to confirm that 1260.00 and higher is in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only having confirmed that Thursday’s plunge had gained no traction, Friday didn’t yet signal momentum reversing up. That didn’t prevent Monday’s strong surge back above 20.00. Exceeding 20.75 would confirm a more durable move underway, but 19.95 must meanwhile hold as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s bounce was retraced back to Thursday’s lows, maintaining the sell signal that had triggered under 129-16. The objective to retest the “V” bottom down to 127-28 remains intact.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 97.50 close, which maintains the momentum of Friday’s break lower. The 94.00 area’s pullback target remains in-play, so long as bounces also hold 97.85 and 98.35.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down first bounced from 4.25 support, which was recovered after extending lower Monday intraday. Not closing under 4.25 allows the one-day dip to suffice for a correction before resuming the rally to its 4.48-4.51 target.

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Posted in Daily Spot