Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One day before FOMC finally tapers — or, not — and the Gold pattern’s elasticity continues to keep the market guessing. A second consecutive higher close didn’t follow the last rally effort, suggesting that the sharpest move of the past two weeks will come Wednesday afternoon. And there have been some sharp moves already.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The gap back up to Friday’s close was filled during Tuesday’s flat choppy ranging. That makes any probe above it likelier to extend higher, since there is no bearish reason to revisit the neutralized attraction. By the same token, the recovery can’t tolerate dipping too much further without becoming a new downleg.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s flat choppy ranging seems to confirm the topping isn’t ready to reverse down. A fresh high testing 1.3833 is not necessary before reversing down, but it is still possible, and likely to complete a top.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close AT 1245.50 didn’t prevent dipping back down under 1240.00. By a lot. The low touched 1226.50. Except for an interim spike up, the session was spent testing critical support at 1232.50. Greeting FOMC’s news from closing above 1237.00 would be bullish.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 19.75 reacted up so far as to fill the gap back to Monday’s 20.10 close. The 19.95 pullback limit was still being tested into the close. Having neutralized the gap’s potential attraction above, a recovery probably can’t tolerate closing under Tuesday’s low.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce back above 129-16 avoided extending the sell signal’s break. Price action ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC announcement may continue to be erratic. But there should be no further backing-and-filling above if the ultimate resolution is still down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Intraday strength held a test of the 97.85 bounce limit before dipping slightly back into negative territory. There isn’t much excuse for further delaying the pullback targeting 94.00, unless the pullback has already ended.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A deeper dip under 4.25 Tuesday was recovered into positive territory, back at Monday’s 4.32 high. Extending higher Wednesday would be credible for rallying into and out of Thursday’s EIA report.

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