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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 20, 2013 - 2:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Wednesday’s FOMC news enabled or triggered strong moves among several markets such as Gold, that strength may have produced trend extremes. Durable reversals, and new trends, are another story.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Blipping up momentarily at Friday’s open was reversed into negative territory instead of extending higher to confirm Thursday’s break had resumed the rally. Another break higher Monday would still be likely to extend higher intraday, but still not requiring that it be confirmed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s opening blip-down was reversed into positive territory Friday, just enough to avoid confirming Thursday’s break had resumed the decline. A fresh low close Monday is no less likely.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Thursday’s post-close low wasn’t revisited, Friday’s open briefly probed a fresh intraday low to fulfill the pattern’s minimum downside requirement. The reaction up to 1205.00 resistance suggests as much. This is not a permanent bottom, but back above 1217.00 would target a test of 1232.50 resistance. Backing-and-filling first down to 1195.00-1197.00 would be helpful.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Without probing any lower than Thursday’s intraday lows, Friday’s bounce signaled room up to 19.70 just as noise without yet reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging around 129-16 revisited its upper-end Friday at 130-04, further delaying the attraction back to the lows but not invalidating it.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD FROM JAN TO FEB] Friday’s second consecutive higher close above the prior rally leg’s 98.65 target has confirmed the pullback targeting the 94.00 area already ended and that 101.75 is in-play. Pullbacks must now hold 98.15 as support.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge on the EIA report extended higher overnight to test the 4.48-4.51 target’s lower-end. Its reaction down Friday held lower prior highs down to 4.41, maintaining the rally’s momentum.

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Posted in Daily Spot