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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 23, 2013 - 2:55 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Very little intraday trending on Monday, as the holiday liquidity began evaporating. The difficulty in generating sponsorship is as difficult as generating countertrend sponsorship. It also makes markets vulnerable to oddities like Sunday night’s bond blip-up.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down went nowhere, ranging sideways essentially back down to Friday’s low. There is no requirement for the next trending attempt to begin immediately, and another intraday dip that recovers into positive territory is the only reliable long-entry setup.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s failure to confirm Thursday’s breakout made the attraction back to Wednesday’s close likelier to fill the gap. Monday’s gap up only ranged sideways within Friday’s range, leaving no particular timing to the next trending attempt.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip back down to 1192.00 was sufficient to complete the reaction down from Friday’s test of 1205.00 resistance. A retest of 1205.00 would be likelier to break higher for a corrective bounce with potential back up through 1217.00 to 1232.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s sideways ranging still has room at least another dime higher to 19.70 before suggesting that a more sizable bounce is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Regardless of an overnight “fat finger” surge to 135-23, Monday’s ranging around 129-16 continues to leave the pattern vulnerable to breaking back to recent lows at 127-28.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s fresh high didn’t extend higher Monday, which would have been helpful confirmation to Friday’s second consecutive higher close that was still within Thursday’s breakout range.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s 4.53 high probed the 4.48-4.51 target area’s upper-end. A dip back down into Monday’s open confirmed the area’s resistance is influential. But there is room back down to 4.39-4.42 before suggesting the rally’s momentum may have ended. Closing above 4.53 would next target 4.69.

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Posted in Daily Spot