Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil finally behaved in-line with its buy signal, although delayed aggression can be only so aggressive. Its rally probably wouldn’t absorb a lower close, nor would Gold’s rally which was just confirmed before the weekend.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s gap down held prior lows and trended back up intraday to close at session highs. There is no requirement to retest Friday’s low, but the recovery must be extending before noon Monday to be credible.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A single break lower had never been confirmed, and two subsequent sessions were unpredictive and offered no new information to the pattern. The pattern’s vulnerability to backing-and-filling was exploited by a spike up. Closing back under 1.3800 confirmed the spike was only a retest of prior highs. Closing back at 1.3750-1.3780 began to signal momentum reversing down. That was a little too deep too soon to be reliable — reacting down so deeply a little slower would have been more bearish.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s second higher consecutive close confirmed Thursday’s break above 1205.00 targeting 1232.50, which already tested 1217.00 Thursday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Friday still hesitated pessimistically upon filling the gap back to prior highs, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday to within 3 ticks of the longstanding 127-28 target reacted up to 128-00, but that was retraced into the afternoon’s return back to session lows.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Friday were finally aggressive, the first time since signaling the rally had resumed. The 101.50 target was attacked to within 75 cents, which remains in-play so long as no session were to close negative first, which would signal a false breakout had peaked.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to recover Tuesday’s 4.45 high Thursday prevented signaling that the 4.39-4.42 pullback limit had held each session’s tests. Gapping down ahead of the EIA report was later retraced enough to fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, but only temporarily before dipping back under 4.39. Closing above 4.45 is needed to reinstate any upside momentum.

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