Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Friday’s price action was all rebutted Monday, but only enough to threaten reversing direction, and not quite enough to actually reverse. That often leaves no room or time for delaying the original price action’s intent — whether that was trending, or a correction — from extending in its original direction.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s recovery attempt was retraced entirely Monday back to Friday’s post-open lows, which was also 61.8% back to Thursday’s night’s lows. This is the optimal pullback limit, which would be confirmed by resuming the rally without further delay or backing-and-filling.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Already closing under 1.3750-1.3770 Friday was concerning for possibly being premature to reversing momentum down. In fact, Monday’s bounce retraced much of Friday’s reaction down from its gap up. Almost any delay in reversing back under 1.3750-1.3770 would be likely to extend back up to 1.3833 — where a new upleg could be triggered if not rejected intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down from Friday’s test of 1217.00 resistance, Sunday night’s slide pushed Monday’s open to gap down at its 1205.00 pullback limit. But Friday’s bounce also confirmed Thursday’s break above 1205.00, requiring there to eventually be at least a third higher close before sponsorship can reverse momentum down. So, quickly rejecting Monday’s late probe under 1205.00 support is all but required to keep alive the bounce’s ultimate 1232.50 target.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing slightly higher Sunday night was dragged down by Gold’s difficulty, gapping down Monday and extending to test 19.70 support. Tuesday’s open should reject Monday’s dip without delay if the rally’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce did probe above Friday’s 128-23 interim high, but not by gapping open above it. So, the decline’s momentum remains intact, targeting a test of fresh lows at 127-28, so long as 129-00 isn’t recovered.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday’s rally to within 75 cents of the pattern’s 101.50 target was concerning for having waited so long since the breakout before behaving aggressively. Sunday night’s dip back down to “lower prior highs” extended slightly lower intraday Monday to test 99.60, and then lower to test 99.15. The pattern cannot tolerate much delay in resuming the rally.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD FROM JAN TO FEB] Friday’s probe under the 4.42-4.45 pullback limit (basis Feb, 4.39-4.42 basis Jan) was reacted to Monday by an “inside day” attacking Friday’s close. Closing above 4.50 would be likely to resume the rally.
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