Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight If the year’s first trading session is any indication, then this year will not reward complacency. Thursday’s abrupt resolutions to the recent Euro topping and Gold bottoming patterns might still be absorbed Friday. But entering the week without rejecting Thursday’s action will confirm their new trends are underway.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Gapping up Thursday helps to confirm a bottom is forming, which will continue being the premise so long as 80.50 now holds as support.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Three sessions of consolidating at resistance proved to be distribution when Thursday’s open gapped down sharply to the prior bounce’s origin. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg underway potentially targeting 1.3500. Otherwise, a bounce must hold 1.3695 to maintain this break’s momentum.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up extended through the 1217.00 resistance whose test had produced Tuesday’s new low. The 1232.50 target remains intact so long as 1221.00 now holds as support. The target can be tested up to 1237.00-1240.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher without delay Thursday would have been credible for putting in a bottom. Gapping up sharply fulfilled the condition. Extending higher without delay Friday would be credible for extending the recovery to 20.70.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s retest of the decline’s 127-28 target was recovered back above the 128-06 to test 128-26. This suggests that a bottom is forming, which would be signaled by closing higher Friday.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows Thursday extended down sharply, too deeply to be considered only a corrective dip. Any potential for resuming the rally will require another accumulative consolidation pattern to form, and then to trigger. Thursday’s 95.50 low is a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 92.15, so trying to extend down Friday morning might stretch the rubber band too tightly not to snap back up. The delayed EIA report will be released Friday morning.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s year-ending fresh low was seemingly rejected by Thursday’s new year gap up, yet again missing a second consecutive lower close that would have been bearish. The inside day retraced only 61.8% of Tuesday’s drop to 4.33, so extending any higher Friday would credible for surging sharply intraday. Closing under 4.23 Friday would be very difficult to recover without yet forming another accumulation pattern. The delayed EIA report will be released Friday morning.
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