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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 3, 2014 - 2:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil has extended its drop to fully test the noise range around a constructive 61.8% retracement of the recent rally leg. Any lower would suggest that peace is breaking out all over. And peace is not breaking out all over.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 80.50 pullback limit wasn’t even attacked before Thursday’s rally extended into the weekend. Closing above 81.00 would target 81.66.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s second consecutive lower close confirms a new downleg is underway, targeting 1.3540 and potentially 1.3485.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1232.50 target’s overnight test included 1237.00 before dipping back into Friday’s open. Its intraday retest extended to also fulfill most of the target’s upper-range to 1240.00. Potential for extending to 1270.00 now depends upon holding 1232.50 as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Interestingly, only shallow strength accompanied Gold’s rally Friday. But the afternoon continued firming back up toward the overnight highs, still giving the recovering a benefit of a doubt.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still awaiting a signal for momentum reversing up, or for a new downleg to be forming. But the 127-28 target’s test and retest did suggest the downleg had ended.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s retracement of 61.8% of the rally leg wasn’t a buy signal, but it did warn that Friday’s action could then be predictive. Its fresh lows down to 94.00 must now hold for any recovery leg to be credible.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially dipping to 4.20 filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close before EIA triggered a surge back above Thursday’s high and through 4.33 resistance. Holding above 4.33 would be likely also to extend back to recent highs.

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Posted in Daily Spot