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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 9, 2014 - 2:40 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The massive Head & Shoulders forming in Natural Gas started breaking lower Wednesday, extended lower Thursday, and has no reason not to extend further into and out of the weekend. There being no excuse, retracing the dip Friday could be bullish.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip was recovered back up to Wednesday’s high, but was still testing it instead of clearly extending higher to confirm a bigger upleg underway. There should be on further delay if the rally’s momentum remains intact.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The ongoing drop found brief respite in the delayed reaction to Thursday morning’s BOE and ECB interest rate policy announcements. The steep surge testing Wednesday’s high wasn’t retraced entirely back down under Wednesday’s lows, where a second consecutive lower close could confirm a much more substantial decline is underway. But there should be no further delay to extending the decline if it remains valid.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bounce testing 1230.50 resistance were held back Thursday, essentially greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness that requires all the more for any bullish scenario to recover at least 1232.50, if not also 1237.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing held the 19.70 resistance whose recovery is still needed to signal another rally leg is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s high is a little premature for a pattern whose main problem is the impatient optimism preventing a bottom to finish forming. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down on Friday’s Employment Situation report could finish the bottom. By the same token, reacting up would be likely to retrace.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The drop extended Thursday toward its 90.50-91.25 target, which remains intact so long as bounces now hold 93.35 as resistance.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The massive Head & Shoulders pattern began breaking lower into Wednesday’s close under 4.24, and extended down further through Thursday’s EIA report to test 4.05. The 3.87 target remains in-play.

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Posted in Daily Spot