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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 13, 2014 - 2:49 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas had broken lower last week from a massive Head & Shoulders pattern. Monday’s big bounce threatens to reverse momentum back up prematurely. Possible. That, or the more likely scenario that the bounce is refueling sellers for a bigger downleg.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging Monday failed to offer any new parameters. Trending early Tuesday would be less credible.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday morning’s dip confirmed that buyers had gained no traction for Friday’s fresh high that had held the noise range around prior highs. But momentum hasn’t reversed back down, and there is no active signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength to 1255.00 was corrected Monday morning, but recovered into the afternoon. The rally’s momentum now remains intact so long as 1246.00 holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs were slow to materialize Monday, but eventually followed Gold up, and then outperformed it by probing overnight highs testing 20.45.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Hardly any hesitation interrupted last week’s recovery from extending higher Monday, testing 131-08. A second consecutive higher close Monday would require there to be a third, and probably a test of 131-28.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
More selling Sunday night and Monday confirmed that Friday’s bounce was only corrective, and that targets remain outstanding back into the 90.50-91.25 range, which was being attacked Monday afternoon.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday morning’s steep surge tested the Head & Shoulders pattern’s 4.22 neckline as resistance. A 61.8% retracement of the one-week drop from 4.43 is 4.26, with room for noise around it up to 4.36 before signaling a new upleg is underway. Closing Monday back under 4.11 would have been optimal for confirming the pattern’s 3.87 target remains intact. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would start to be bullish.

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Posted in Daily Spot