Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Thursday’s volatility within recent ranges seems to be gathering momentum for substantial breaks.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday morning’s plunge was retraced to unchanged, but not into positive territory — let alone above Wednesday’s high. No second consecutive higher close fails to confirm Wednesday’s break. It isn’t necessarily bearish, but it could become bearish easily if higher highs are delayed further.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday morning’s rally all the way back up to the 1.3645 sell signal was retraced entirely intraday, back down to Wednesday’s test of 1.3580 support. A second consecutive close was still needed to confirm Wednesday’s break, so not probing fresh lows into the weekend could be bullish.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was absorbed in time for Thursday to firm and attack the 1246.00 area, positioned to surge Friday if a new downleg is to be avoided.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s “inside day” continued hovering pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, so extending any higher should be done very aggressively if valid.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled both 130-18 and 130-02 pullback targets the prior two days, Thursday exploited the opportunity to resume the rally. Its early attack on the 131-08 prior high hesitated pessimistically short, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. A third higher close remains outstanding.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s rally had stretched the rubber band to its 94.65 extreme. Its overnight retest reacted down only to test 93.65, which must break lower to confir the 90.50-91.25 target area’s retest remains in-play.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After two probes of the 4.34 bounce limit had failed Wednesday, there was no bearish reason to further delay resuming the decline — let alone for testing the noise range up to 4.47. But an overnight rally did force a gap up testing 4.47. Gapping up gains no traction, making it dismissible, but only if rejected immediately. Reaction to the EIA report did trigger a drop back toward 4.34. The 4.47 opening gap was retested anyway, only to be rejected again, back down to 4.34. There remains no bearish reason to further delay resuming the decline.
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