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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 21, 2014 - 4:24 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Several fresh extremes Sunday night were rejected into Tuesday’s open — Precious Metals and Natural Gas. While Crude Oil held up well, it also probed a fresh extreme. None of the patterns created a buy signal.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap up was quickly retraced back into negative territory. The reversal never extended nor gained traction. Another fresh high in this sequence Wednesday would be credible for extending higher throughout the day.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s bounce avoided confirming Friday’s break lower. It also avoided recovering 1.3580 resistance, keeping alive potential for resuming or at least extending the decline Wednesday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite extending to a fresh high at 1262.00 at Sunday night’s open, price slid into Tuesday’s open back down toward last week’s lows at 1235.00. Recovering 1246.00 and 1248.50 would still resume the rally, but now closing under 1235.00 would seal a top and reverse momentum down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening gap down held its test of 19.70 to maintain the potential for recovering to resume the rally, although that should be obvious Wednesday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight up to 131-20 were never retested intraday Tuesday as the session ranged narrowly around being unchanged. No further high is required, but a retest of the overnight high is likely before any durable downleg could begin.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight dip to the 93.85 sell signal (basis Mar, 93.65 basis Feb) recovered to retest fresh highs at 95.45. Back under 93.85 would still be credible for launching a retest of the lows.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite gapping down Sunday night to 3.20, a recovery through Tuesday’s open attacked last week’s bounce highs up to 3.45. That would be quite a feat to reject yet another bounce of such height. Back under 3.34 would still suggest that sellers are trying to retake control, but now a bigger bounce has become likely.

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Posted in Daily Spot