Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Natural Gas pulled back hard from retesting its high. That’s not necessarily bearish. But it’s not yet bullish.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap up extended higher intraday, but still peaked short of filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. The attraction remains outstanding, and in-play, so any pullback should be recovered.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rejection of last Thursday’s false break higher was almost completed at this Thursday’s gap down to 1.3580. The gap back to last Wednesday’s 1.3545 was filled by extending down through the session. A lot of unfinished business below was neutralized, which might allow a bounce. But the resolution should be down, especially considering that the gap was barely filled at the session low.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying prematurely Wednesday to attack 1270.00 resistance didn’t relieve the pattern of its likelihood for pulling back further to test 1240.00, which Thursday morning’s drop fulfilled. That would have been bullish Wednesday morning, and may still resolve higher. But delaying the pullback created resistance above at 1256.00, and further downside potential to test 1226.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Failing to recover 19.70 kept the door open to extending the decline, which Thursday’s gap down to 19.10 ranged narrowly sideways. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Friday would help the break to be false, and to launch a recovery.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from fulfilling the 133-16 target Wednesday was almost immediate, dipping to 132-25 intraday. But closing back above the 133-02 pullback limit would prevent a downleg from beginning.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength extended to fulfill the pattern’s 98.55 target Thursday morning. Potential for extending higher remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 97.65 as support. Closing above 98.80 would suggest the rally is extending.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s retest of Sunday night’s high had held its 5.40 resistance, and then reacted down Thursday to test 5.00, which is a 61.8% retracement of the upleg from Monday’s 4.65 low. Back above 5.34 would resume the rally. Otherwise, the pullback could first test 4.85. Back under 4.77 would signal a new downleg underway.
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