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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 31, 2014 - 3:20 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Two premature rally attempts this week in Gold have failed and reversed back down to support, the consequence of impatient buying. Natural Gas now seems to be making the error. Will its consequence be limited to delaying a recovery, instead of extending its pullback?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s higher highs neutralized some attraction above, but still has left outstanding a gap up to fresh highs that has yet to be filled.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s drop didn’t hesitate extending Friday by gapping down again. The second consecutive lower close confirms that momentum has reversed down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another impatient bounce Friday morning was attracted back down to 1240.00, this time from testing 1255.00. So long as 1246.00 and 1248.50 hold as resistance, the pullback is only likelier to extend down to at least 1226.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up reversed back down quickly from testing 19.35 resistance. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled, and held. Closing back above Friday’s 19.45 resistance would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s test of the 133-02 pullback limit was rewarded by gapping up to fresh highs Friday, perhaps fueled as much by a flight-to-safety amid stock falling broadly overnight.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The overnight reaction down from Thursday’s test of the 98.55 target closed under its 97.65 pullback limit Friday. The gap back to Thursday’s close was filled, but avoiding a retest of Thursday’s high was too pessimistic to be confident that the trend is necessarily reversing down already just because upside attractions are neutralized.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback extended to its 4.77-4.85 limit, probing an extra nickel deeper, before recovering back above 4.90. Closing higher without delay Monday would suggest momentum had reversed up. That said, a little more backing-and-filling of the 4.77-4.85 area would be more appropriate first.

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Posted in Daily Spot