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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 13, 2014 - 3:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If this bounce is just another temporary detour by Natural Gas, then the next downleg’s sellers should be capable of trending down considerably. But even as a temporary detour, higher highs are possible first.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close on Friday. Otherwise, an immediate bounce wouldn’t be credible for reversing momentum up already.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s premature break held 1.3580-1.3600 to make some sort of bounce likely for Thursday. Thursday gapped up above Tuesday’s highs and ranged around its 1.3680 upper-end. That’s not a buy signal, but a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a break higher is underway. Otherwise, reversing down immediately would be no more credible.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight attack on the 1285.00 pullback limit was recovered into Thursday’s open and extended to fresh highs above 1302.00. Back under 1298.00 and 1295.00 would now signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down was recovered to fresh highs to confirm that Wednesday’s fulfillment of the rally’s minimum objective probably wouldn’t suffice to end the rally targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s extension of the dip was rejected by gapping up sharply Thursday through the 132-12 buy signal. Extending higher was still overlapping the 133-00 confirmation too closely to be confident that momentum had reversed up, but the pattern does tend to extend aggressively if valid.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight dip to 99.40 was recovered enough intraday to hold the pullback limit’s test, and to keep alive the 102.00 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 4.85 bounce limit was exceeded by Thursday’s gap up to 4.92 that extended intraday to test 5.22. Back under 4.95 would reverse the trend back down. Otherwise, the bounce can extend to 5.28 or 5.36 before targeting new highs.

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Posted in Daily Spot