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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 19, 2014 - 2:41 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight FOMC Minutes is usually reliable for triggering a reaction. It’s interesting that Wednesday’s reactions were not uniform. Gold seemed not to notice, barely slipping any further after the intraday ranging, while bonds fell sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s knee-jerk spike down barely pierced Tuesday’s low under 80.00, which was still too far above the decline’s 79.80 target to be considered met. But a reaction up did interrupt the decline’s momentum.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Retesting Tuesday’s ~1.3775 high reacted back down Wednesday to test 1.3725, but otherwise unshaken by the day’s news.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A third consecutive session Wednesday of ranging narrowly intraday around 1318.00 has suggested the rally needs a dip to test the 1306.00 pullback limit, stretching the rubber band back to launch another upleg. Curiously, the FOMC Minutes release didn’t effect Gold by nearly the degree that it affected bonds.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Continued narrow ranging at 21.85 further undermines the rally’s momentum, and suggests that the rally needs a pullback to refuel buyers, whether to 21.65 or to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s initial strength was itself an attack on 134-00, which attracted no reinforcements. The FOMC Minutes reaction slide sharply down to 132-28, leaving no signal in-play.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight highs testing the 103.00 area’s resistance was still being tested through it through Wednesday afternoon. Back under 101.15 would start to signal momentum reversing down, potentially reversing down hard.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending sharply higher overnight tested significant resistance at 5.95, requiring pullbacks to hold 5.89 for the pattern to next target 6.70. Sharply higher highs into the session tested 6.21 resistance that now requires pullbacks to hold 6.03.

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Posted in Daily Spot