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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 27, 2014 - 3:13 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s reaction down Wednesday from meeting the rally’s target Tuesday was expected not to confirm a reversal underway. In fact, the character of Thursday’s non-confirmation was itself informative. So, confirmation can be important on many levels.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s dip back to 80.25 avoided confirming Wednesday’s bounce as gaining traction, leaving the door open to resuming the drop to fresh lows at 79.20.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite gapping down, Thursday reversed back up into positive territory to 1.3725, and did not confirm Wednesday’s break. Keeping in-line with expectations would now also extend higher to probe last week’s highs. Retracing Thursday’s recovery would be bearish, since Thursday’s bounce retraced 61.8% of the drop from last week’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s premature overly-aggressive drop avoided extending down Thursday, while barely bouncing. The gap back to Tuesday’s 1342.00 target is still likely to be filled — sooner rather than later so long as 1328.00 holds as support — if not also retested up to 1349.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Subdued ranging Thursday maintained potential for a corrective bounce to precede a deeper pullback targeting 20.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up extended slightly higher but mostly ranged sideways, just under 134-26/134-30 prior highs that have always required a retest. Having avoided filling the low’s outstanding gap before recovering does suggest the high’s retest will hold and form a more durable top.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still ranging narrowly without offering any compelling setups.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s ranging in negative territory around 4.50 could suffice as a bottom, but a bounce has room up to 4.62-4.67 before signaling a new upleg is underway.

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Posted in Daily Spot