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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 28, 2014 - 3:35 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Dollar’s drop Friday fulfilled its long outstanding objective. That might be compelling for long-entry, if not for being new lows into the weekend. Timing isn’t everything, but it’s something.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 79.80  target was finally met when Friday’s open gapped down. The balance of the session ranged there. Gapping up above 80.05 would form an Island reversal, but a second consecutive close would be needed to confirm the trend is extending.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Prior highs were probed as expected up to 1.3805-1.3815. Despite already gapping up, a consolidation there eventually started trending higher into the weekend. A second consecutive higher close Monday would indicate the topping was not forming.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
1328.00‘s pullback limit did not hold, as Wednesday’s 1322.50 low was retested. Not recovering 1328.00 immediately Monday would target 1306.00. Recovering would still target the gap back to 1342.00 up to 1349.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging doesn’t confirm that Thursday’s shallow bounce was the extent of corrective bouncing. But back under Wednesday’s 21.20 low would signal the decline extending down to 20.75.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction down stopped short of touching the 133-24 pullbck limit where bouncing back above 134-00 would have been a buy signal. Its reaction up was more substantial, again missing an attracting long-entry setup.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming back up to 103.00 and reacting down to unchanged nearer 102.00 while Russia invades the Crimea further underscores the lack of compelling setups in this pattern — even prior Friday.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s early strength extended higher intraday, filling a recent gap back to 4.66 whose recovery through the close would be very bullish. Lacking that Friday, closing above it Monday would still be credible for reversing momentum up.

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Posted in Daily Spot