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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 6, 2014 - 2:44 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements shook up things that Friday’s Employment Situation report will other reinforce or contradict. Either would be predictive at this stage of much of the coverage. But the most credible would be improvement in Crude Oil, which may have completed a corrective dip.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The reaction to Thursday morning’s BOE and ECB statements triggered an early dip that probed the decline’s previously tested 79.80 target down to 79.60. A second consecutive lower close would signal a much larger downleg underway. Closing Friday back above 79.80 would help to begin forming a bottom.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s reaction to the BOE and ECB statements surged to fresh highs retesting the Island. Not closing back under at least 1.3800 now allows a second consecutive higher close Friday to signal a much larger rally underway, instead of forming a more durable top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1349.00 target was retested Thursday, but not rejected. Its peak stopped short of probing the 1355.00 high, so the pattern is vulnerable to reacting either way on Friday’s Employment Situation report. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a much bigger upleg underway targeting 1378.50 and potentially 1399.00. Closing back under 1333.00 would start to signal a new downleg underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce attacked the 21.75 limit whose recovery must be avoided to maintain the pullback’s potential to test 20.75 as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not exploiting Wednesday’s bounce from Tuesday’s dip to 132-08 support left the door open for Thursday to gap down and test the next lower support at 131-24. The next lower support is 131-06, and if tested in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, would be likely to launch a significant intraday rally. Otherwise, the next available buy signal would be back above 132-10.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pullback’s target of 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) was barely pierced by 2 cents at Thursday’s low. Recovering 101.85 and 102.45 would signal and confirm momentum reversing to retest the highs back up to 105.00.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s rally back up to Tuesday’s highs proved that Wednesday’s dip was weak-handed, but stopped short of triggering a new rally leg underway above 4.65, which was still being tested into the close.

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Posted in Daily Spot