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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 22, 2015 - 4:34 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up slightly Thursday was reversed down sharply in reaction to the ECB QE news. Falling back to 1.1525 critical support failed to hold, and instead broke sharply through it to 1.1367. That”s a breakout, and a second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm. Even avoiding confirmation would not prevent probing fresh lows next week.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday”s night”s drop to 1279.00 filled the gap back to Tuesday”s close, and recovered back above 1287.70 before Thursday”s open. Probing fresh high above 1307.00 is still likely to test 1310.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night”s dip to 17.90 filled the gap back to Tuesday”s close before recovering Thursday to test Wednesday”s opening gap above. All nearby attractions are neutralized. But Wednesday”s 18.49 high was narrowly avoided, pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday night”s dip to 147-12 reacted up sharply in reaction to the ECB QE news, back through 148-23 and 148-14 to 149-28. The close had fallen back under 148-14, a second consecutive lower close that confirms Wednesday”s breakout, and which requires at least one more eventual lower close.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bounce up to the 49.00 before Thursday”s ECB QE was rejected sharply intraday, fueled by large inventories reported by EIA. The decline”s lowest target  at 46.25 (actually, noise under the 47.80 target) was tested and retested. It, ultimately held through the close, but the base must launch a rally before entering the noon hour if a new downleg is to be avoided.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday”s EIA report triggered a probe to fresh lows at 2.77. The close was probing back above 2.79-2.82 prior lows — still overlapping and not necessarily recovering. Back above 2.86 and 2.98 would trigger a bounce targeting 3.11, with potential to become much more.

Posted in Daily Spot