Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond went from invalidating the decline, reversing momentum up, and then fulfilling its minimum objective — a multi-point move — within the span of 2-3 sessions. The Euro went from gapping up to fresh highs in the morning, to reversing down sharply into the afternoon. This sort of elasticity tends not to be an exception, but more a warning that the environment is not opposed to swinging widely.
Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The gap back to down to last Friday’s 79.65 (basis Jun, 79.50 basis Mar) open was sliced through into Thursday’s open, extending to 79.40. An afternoon surge recovered back above the prior low to potentially begin forming a bottom.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s third higher close fulfilled the minimum requirement in-play, but still retesting last Friday’s high made an immediate reversal down unlikely. Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs fulfilled upside momentum, then reversed down well into negative territory. The gap back up to Thursday’s open may attract price higher, but just holding 1.3910 as resistance would allow a top to finish forming.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Wednesday’s breakout, regardless of the shaky base that launched it. The next targeted resistance is at 1378.50, but there remains potential for extending up to 1399.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Perhaps Thursday’s relatively flat ranging is symptomatic of being caught between two worlds, the bearish industrial Copper, and the bullish precious Gold. I would expect Silver to track Gold eventually, especially since its 20.70 pullback target was met and held, but there is otherwise no predictability to the pattern
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s initial weakness formed a Flag that broke sharply higher through the morning to probe the recovery’s 133-04 minimum objective up to 133-11. A pullback has room down to 132-24 and 132-08 without selling pressure even beginning to gain traction.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s firming left outstanding the attraction below at 97.35. The bounce is probably only temporary unless recovering 100.00 (+/- 15 cents).
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report didn’t help Wednesday’s break recover back into the recent consolidation, and instead pushed price back through recent lows. It was also a second consecutive lower close, so no recovery would be credible without first producing an eventual third lower close.
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