Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s choppy ride Monday still avoided closing above the rally’s initial target. Two consecutive sessions failing to extend through resistance make the third session likely to react down from it.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip back to recent lows — lows that had been tested already — suggests that at least a fresh low will be probed. And nothing requires that fresh low to recover, instead of extending down. Back above 76.70 would suggest momentum reversing up, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s highs was probed  only slightly Monday, but it more thoroughly tested the gap back to Thursday’s open. The gap held again. but 1.3910 resistance wasn’t rejected. And just delaying a downleg at this stage makes a downleg less likely. Initial weakness still has a window of credibility for extending down intraday, but now so does early strength.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s 1392.00 high was erased entirely before the open back around 1378.50. Somewhat more modest strength was also rejected as a midday slide fell to 1370.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down never extended further, but only ranged sideways in negative territory. The “ineffectual pessimism” makes the pattern likely to extend on any initial strength.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback from retesting prior highs extended down Monday to test 132-28, and any lower would make 132-08 likely to be tested, too. It’s probably just a corrective dip, so the rally could resume from any level.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s dip finally fulfilled the pullback’s extended 97.35 objective — at least, to within 2 cents. Closing back above 99.50 would start to signal momentum has reversed up, confirmed above 100.45.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Like Crude Oil’s temporary bounce, Monday’s gap up in Natural Gas should prove premature, too, creating and then leaving unfinished business below at the gap back to Friday’s close.

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