Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil wants to rally. Its downleg met its target. Its buy signal triggered. And its confirmation has been probed. And probed. And probed. Perhaps closing above it is being delayed until after the weekend. Otherwise, retesting the lows, anyone?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s weakness was shallow, and only touched 80.20, also holding a test of Wednesday’s spike high. That’s probably not the pullback’s low, now that Thursday’s higher close already confirmed the rally. But closing back above 80.20 after dipping lower Monday morning would be bullish.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Firming Friday is allowable in the bearish scenario after two consecutive lower closes already confirmed the decline’s momentum. Closing lower would be optimal, especially if the morning were to have probed above Friday’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Finally met a support it liked Friday, at 1330.50. Back above 1333.00 extended to test 1342.00 resistance, then holding 1336.00 as support. Back above 1342.00 Monday would target 1349.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow sideways ranging did not reject Thursday’s break under 20.70, nor did it test “higher prior lows” so that retesting Thursday’s open could neutralize its attraction. The lack of volatility suggests waiting for better signals.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial weakness Friday quickly recovered, much like Thursday’s open, except that Friday then extended higher intraday. Touching 132-22, which was a low on the way down, does suggest that Friday’s high will be exceeded at some point — probably Monday — before being vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Returning back to the 99.50 confirmation level overnight Friday helped to dismiss Thursday’s reaction down from its retest. Closing above 100.00 would now offer additional confirmation that momentum has reversed up — preferably recovering 100.00 immediately Monday since Friday was still testing 99.50 through the close. Next significant resistance would be 102.35, targeting 104.65.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rejecting Tuesday’s gap up was due more reward than just to touch last week’s lows on Thursday. Overnight action easily probed lower, extending into Friday.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…