Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Trending down overnight and gapping down sharply Friday created three obstacles for a recovery. First is the 1.1200 gap down, under all prior lows, which will need to be retested after bouncing back into the prior range at least above 1.1385. Second, trending through Friday tends to be duplicated Monday morning, which would only add further difficulty to a qualified retest of Friday”s gap down from above. And third, Friday”s low is a second consecutive lower close, confirming Thursday”s breakout from a multi-session range and requiring an eventual third lower close. Meanwhile, gapping up would create another obstacle, needing to fill the gap close left outstanding below.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Is 1310.00 going to be avoided? Retesting Wednesday”s 1307.00 prior high Thursday was enough to react down to Thursday”s 1284.50 low Friday. A bounce there may have formed the right shoulder to a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. Another break under 1284.50 could trigger it. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s narrowly ranging inside day still didn”t probe prior highs, which Thursday pessimistically avoided, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s lower close was all but rejected by Friday”s gap up. The session only ranged around Thursday”s 149-24 high. Closing above Friday”s 150-11 post-open high would target a retest of the prior high, presumably up to 151-28. Regardless, a close under Thursday”s 147-12 low is required eventually.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bilp-up in reaction to Abdullah”s death Thursday night was reversed back under 46.25 support before Friday”s open. The extended ranging at its support without yet rallying was already threatening to launch a new downleg. Friday afternoon did trend down to fresh lows at 45.35. Back above 47.80 would trigger a recovery. Otherwise, a second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg is underway.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday helped to confirm that Thursday”s probe of new lows did not gain traction. But gapping up creates “unfinished business below” at the gap back to Thursday”s 2.84 close, so probably cannot launch a recovery. Friday afternoon”s action was testing the 2.98 buy signal.