Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil spent a long time chipping away at resistance before finally breaking higher recently. And now that resistance is being tested as support. The speed of bouncing from its test as support should be inverse to how long its break as resistance was delayed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down didn’t extend lower intraday, and neither was it probed Tuesday. All the while, not filling the gap back up to Friday’s close reflects pessimism that continues to suggest sellers aren’t gaining any traction for their efforts.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s narrow range only tested Monday’s shallow high. Not much volatility, but more importantly, no follow-through to Monday’s strength. The ongoing “ineffectual optimism” still suggest resolving down and resuming the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already being long past the point of forming a durable bottom, even a shallower corrective bounce trigger was avoided Tuesday as price drifted to new lows around 1278.00. Lower prior highs at 1268.50 could trigger a reaction up, but the pattern otherwise is targeting 1249.00 or 1237.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s weakness avoided probing new lows, while still hugging 19.75 support, keeping alive potential for a near-term bounce back up to 20.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without any immediate strength, Tuesday was unable to rally at all, and Monday’s 132-16 low was retested. Back above 133-04 would trigger a corrective bounce to fill the gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite only attacking the 102.35-102.60 target to within a dime two days earlier, Tuesday’s drop fell back to 100.00 support. Back above 101.00 would signal the rally had resumed, likely to slice through the resistance that was avoided pessimistically, on the way to higher targets above 104.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The failed rally’s retracement extended to its minimum objective of filling the gap back to the recent 4.27 low close. Recovering from probing a fresh low isn’t necessary to form a credible bottom, but I wouldn’t chase an immediate uptick Wednesday.

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