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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | April 8, 2014 - 3:49 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold and Crude Oil both proved Tuesday that the recent pullbacks were a head-fake. That’s not a big thing, and there are plentiful examples of the pattern. What will be meaningful is if that also means much bigger moves are coming. There are also plentiful examples of that.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Never having confirmed last week’s breakout, the index hasn’t had any defense from pulling back, which finally culminated in gapping down Tuesday. That also creates an attraction above to fill the gap back Monday’s close, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
If Monday’s bounce wasn’t in-line with last week’s breakout and confirmation that has yet to produce a third lower close, then Tuesday’s gap up was even less so. Closing above 1.3575-1.3760 essentially invalidates the setup’s momentum, especially if not reinstated immediately Wednesday. The alternative isn’t necessarily bullish.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s pullback to 1298.00 support resolved up overnight to fresh highs that at least attacked the 1317.00 potential objective. There was no intraday follow-through, but the bounce’s momentum remains alive.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday helps to confirm the pattern has actually been a wide range supported by 19.75, still having potential to 20.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An early dip was recovered to a fresh high above 133-24 that keeps alive potential for filling the outstanding gap back up to 134-06.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s surge pierced the 102.35-102.60 target that prior highs had only attacked to within a dime. The rally’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending to a fresh high Tuesday doesn’t trigger any higher target, and the pattern could benefit from dipping once more to probe under 4.22.

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Posted in Daily Spot